Flipster Market Insights: Bitcoin Falls Below $65K as Liquidations Rise, While On-Chain Accumulation Emerges
If we look only at price, Bitcoin seems to be doing something simple: trading within a $60,000–$75,000 range. But from a market structure perspective, three more important developments are unfolding within that range:
On-chain accumulation is beginning to appear
Leverage in derivatives markets continues to be flushed out
Macro risk has not yet faded
These conditions are consistent with periods where price activity stabilises within a certain range, although the market structure remains variable the market is entering a familiar but important phase: a bottom that appears to be forming, but is not yet fully stable.
On-Chain Data: Accumulation Has Appeared, but Conviction Remains Limited
According to the latest data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s current structure shows one clear feature:
Short-term holder cost basis is concentrated in the $60,000–$70,000 range
Around 429,000 BTC has been accumulated in this zone, accounting for more than 8% of circulating supply
This pattern has historically coincided with concentrated trading activity in this zone. The issue, however, is the strength of that zone. Compared with previous historical structures:
At the 2025 high around $120K, accumulation density was significantly stronger
The $85K zone later formed another strong support band
The current $65K–$70K range shows accumulation, but at a noticeably weaker level
In other words, this is a zone with buying interest, but not yet strong conviction.
Derivatives Markets: The Cost of Bottom Formation Is Repeated Deleveraging
During this period, the market has already gone through multiple rounds of deleveraging.
Daily liquidations have exceeded $500 million
Around 130,000 traders have been liquidated
High-leverage positions continue to be cleared out
These events point to one key conclusion: the market is not simply falling into a bottom, but being washed into one by repeated cycles. At the same time, this also creates another issue:
Each rebound
tends to come with fresh leverage being rebuilt
only for that leverage to be cleared again
This kind of structure usually suggests that the market remains in an unstable equilibrium.
Macro Background: This Is Not a Typical Market Cycle, but a Market Pricing War Risk
If we go back to early March, the market narrative initially looked fairly straightforward:
War broke out
Oil prices surged, with Brent briefly nearing $126
Risk assets declined
But the situation later started to evolve in a different direction:
Gold recorded one of its sharpest weekly declines in 40 years
U.S. Treasury yields rose, weakening the usual safe-haven response
Bitcoin remained range-bound
JPMorgan even stated in a report that Bitcoin had shown signs of safe-haven-like demand. This is an important shift, but it should be interpreted carefully: Bitcoin has not become a safe-haven asset outright, but in certain scenarios, it appears to be showing some safe-haven characteristics.
One Critical Variable: The Market Is Effectively Trading the Strait of Hormuz
At the moment, there is really one central variable driving markets: whether the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted.
Around 20% of global oil supply depends on this shipping route
Tanker traffic reportedly fell by more than 70% at one stage
More than 150 vessels were delayed
This directly affects:
Oil prices and inflation expectations
Interest rate expectations
Global liquidity conditions
Bitcoin’s price action has also closely followed these developments:
Escalation around the disruption → BTC fell toward $66K
Headlines suggesting negotiation progress → BTC rebounded above $70K
This suggests one important point: the market is not currently trading crypto in isolation; it is trading alongside broader macro risk.
The Market’s Real Condition: Structure Is Improving, but Consensus Has Not Yet Formed
When all of these signals are put together, a fuller picture emerges.
What has already happened:
✔ Selling pressure has eased
✔ Long-term holders have started to add again
✔ ETF flows have returned
✔ Leverage has been gradually cleared out
What has not yet happened:
✖ A strong accumulation zone has formed
✖ Institutional participation has become broadly aligned
✖ Macro uncertainty has meaningfully eased
This suggests that the market is currently in a state of structural improvement, but without a clear catalyst strong enough to trigger a trend.
For Traders, the Real Question Is the Quality of the Bottom
In this kind of market environment, the more useful question is not simply, “Is this the bottom?” but rather, “How strong is this bottom?”
Some more important indicators to watch include:
Whether accumulation continues in the $65K–$70K range
Whether the $70K–$75K range starts to act as support rather than resistance
Whether ETF inflows continue
Whether oil prices and geopolitical tensions begin to ease
Because real market turning points usually happen when capital flows and macro conditions start moving in the same direction.
When a Market Starts to Bottom, Volatility Usually Does Not End Immediately
One of the easiest mistakes to make in the current environment is to assume that:
support means reversal
rebound means trend
This Bitcoin structure looks more like a choppy bottoming process than a one-time reversal. In this type of environment:
volatility is likely to continue
false breakouts may appear frequently
sentiment may continue to shift back and forth
Disclosure: When observing markets, many traders track price movements across equities, commodities, and crypto assets at the same time.For users who want to follow multi-market dynamics on a single platform, Flipster TradFi also provides a way to track the performance of a range of macro assets.
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