Flipster Market Insights: Bitcoin Holds Near $70K in Extreme Fear as Markets Weigh Bottoming Signs and Macro Risk

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Flipster Market Insights: Bitcoin Holds Near $70K in Extreme Fear as Markets Weigh Bottoming Signs and Macro Risk

The market’s most contradictory moments often appear when fear looks the most extreme. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin has repeatedly fluctuated within the $60,000–$75,000 range, while three seemingly conflicting signals have emerged at the same time:

  • Price has rebounded quickly to above

    $71,000

  • The Fear & Greed Index has remained in

    Extreme Fear (9) for 46 consecutive days

  • ETF flows have turned back to

    net inflows

This kind of market structure is a classic example of a market phase where prices are recovering, but sentiment remains subdued.

On-Chain Signals: Selling Pressure Is Easing, but Buyers Remain Cautious

According to observations from K33 Research, several key changes are taking place within the market:

  • Spot ETF flows have shifted from negative to positive

  • Long-term holders (LTHs) are accumulating again

  • Selling momentum is gradually declining

This points to one thing: pressure from the supply side of the market may be moderating. Over the past few months, Bitcoin’s pullback has mainly come from:

  • Profit-taking at higher levels

  • Initial ETF-related distribution

  • Forced liquidations of leveraged longs

But once prices fell below 70K:

  • Investors were no longer rushing to sell

  • Cost bases gradually began to redistribute

This is also why the market has started to show signs of consolidation following recent declines.

Leverage Markets: The Flush Has Happened, but There Is No New Bullish Consensus

Unlike the relative stability of the spot market, derivatives markets are showing a different side of the picture:

  • Perpetual futures open interest has fallen to yearly lows

  • Funding rates have stayed negative for an extended period

  • CME positioning has not expanded meaningfully

At the same time, during the recent rebound:

  • Around

    $52 million in liquidations

    occurred

  • Long positions accounted for roughly

    72%

This suggests that the market is still deleveraging, with no clear directional trend established yet. In other words, the current rise is:

  • Not driven by aggressive fresh long positioning

  • But by a

    decline in selling pressure

This kind of move is often seen as a pattern associated with market stabilisation phases.

Macro Variables: The Market Is Trading Expectations, Not Outcomes

The real trigger behind this rebound was not on-chain, but in the Middle East.

  • Trump signaled that “negotiations are making progress”

  • The market began to expect de-escalation in the conflict

  • Oil briefly fell below

    $100

  • BTC quickly rebounded toward

    $72K

But the issue is this: these are still outcomes that have not yet actually happened. The market is currently showing clear divergence:

  • The White House says negotiations are productive

  • Iran has publicly denied this and raised its demands

Even more risks have emerged:

  • Transit fees may be imposed in the Strait of Hormuz

  • As much as

    $2 million per trip

  • With crypto payments reportedly accepted

These market movements appear to reflect expectations around potential macro developments.

A Deeper Structural Signal: Capital Is Waiting, Not Leaving

Another key signal is coming from stablecoins.

  • USDC recorded more than

    $1.6 billion in daily trading volume

  • A large amount of capital remains parked on the sidelines

This suggests that capital remains in stable assets rather than being fully deployed. This is different from a true bear market:

  • In a bear market → capital exits

  • Right now → capital is parked

That is why the current market looks more like a pause, not an ending.

For Traders, the Essence of Bottoming Is the Convergence of Uncertainty

When the market enters a bottoming phase, there are several more important indicators to watch:

  • Whether ETFs continue to post net inflows

  • Whether stablecoin capital begins to move back in

  • Whether BTC can hold the

    $72K–$75K range

  • Whether geopolitical tensions genuinely cool down

A true bottom is usually not defined by price alone, but by the speed at which uncertainty disappears.

The Market Is Trying to Answer One Question: Is This a Turning Point or Just a Temporary Pause?

The current market structure is quite clear:

  • Selling pressure is easing ✔

  • Leverage has been flushed out ✔

  • Long-term holders are returning ✔

  • Macro risks are still present ✖

This means the market has completed half the process: it appears to have transitioned from a decline into a period of consolidation. But whether it can move into the next stage will depend on:

  • Whether the macro environment becomes supportive

  • Whether liquidity begins to re-enter the market

Disclosure: When observing markets, many traders track price movements across equities, commodities, and crypto assets at the same time.For users who want to follow multi-market dynamics on a single platform, Flipster TradFi also provides a way to track the performance of a range of macro assets.

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